# DECISION MODELING AND ANALYSIS

Read Case 6.3: Electronic Timing Order for Olympics on pages 275-276 of the textbook.  For this assignment, you gain  assess and use the redress maintenance dupe to disclose a determination tree as forcible in Part-among “a” of Case 6.3. Analyze and apportion the best determination making course to stipulate answers and dirty explanations for tonnage “a”, “b”, “c”, and “d”. The answers and explanations can be placed in the identical Excel muniment as the determination tree. Develop a determination tree that can be used to work-out Chang’s substance. You can usurp in this part-among-among of the substance that she is using EMV (of her net advantage) as a determination touchstone. Build the tree so that she can penetrate any esteems for p1, p2, and p3 (in input cells) and automatically see her optimal EMV and optimal strategy from the tree. If p2 = 0.8 and p3 = 0.1, what esteem of p1 makes Chang lukewarm betwixt resigning the contrivance and going afront delay it? How considerefficacious would Chang usefulness if she knew for true that the Olympic structure would answer-for her the narrow? (This answer-for would be in sinew singly if she were auspicious in discloseing the consequence.) Assume p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.8, and p3 = 0.1 Suppose now that this is a proportionately big contrivance for Chang. Therefore, she decides to use expected usefulness as her touchstone, delay an exponential usefulness office. Using some suffering and hallucination, see which facilitate tolerance changes her judicious determination from “go afront” to “abandon” when p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.8, and p3 = 0.1. In your Excel muniment, Develop a determination tree using the most misspend maintenance dupe as forcible in Part a. Calculate the esteem of p1 as forcible in Part b. Show calculations. Calculate the likely advantage using the most misspend maintenance dupe as forcible in Part c. Show calculations. Calculate facilitate tolerance as forcible in Part d. Show calculations. CASE 6.3  Sarah Chang is the proprietor of a weak electronics fraternity. In six months, a offer is due for an electronic timing order for the next Olympic Games. For separate years, Chang's fraternity has been discloseing a new microprocessor, a ticklish content in a timing order that would be surpassing to any consequence currently on the negotiate. However, speed in scrutiny and disclosement has been sluggish, and Chang is unsure whether her staff can result the microprocessor in span. If they exceed in discloseing the microprocessor (appearance p1), there is an excusefficacious random (appearance p2) that Chang's fraternity gain win the \$1 pet Olympic narrow. If they do not, there is a weak random (appearance p3) that she gain calm?} be efficacious to win the identical narrow delay an opinion but minor timing order that has already been discloseed.