HCM CITY UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY (HUTECH) FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT & BIOTECHNOLOGY HUMAN AND ENVIRONMENT CLIMATE CHANGE CONTENTS I. CLIMATE CHANGE I. 1. Greenhouse gas effluence I. 2. Interpretation of sky exexsubstitute in Vietnam II. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIO-ECONOMY II. 1. Impacts on ecosystems II. 2. Impacts on the husbanding II. 2. 1. Impacts on tillage and aquaculture II. 2. 2. Impacts on the principle sector II. 3. Impacts on other economic sectors II. 4. Impacts on sodality I. CLIMATE CHANGE: I. 1.
Greenhouse gas effluence: Greenhouse gas effluence (CO2, CH4, N2O) has uniformly developmentd globally gone the industrial tendency, distinctly due to rational’s activities including the exploitation of fossils for industrial and unroving genesis and transportation. Greenhouse gas accumulated balance an extensive continuance reasons a greenhouse chattels, which elevates the global atmosphere. The roll of greenhouse gas per idiosyncratic in Vietnam is inferior than the world’s medium roll (Teffectual 1. ), but Vietnam is one of the countries that is most abnormal by sky exchange. Teffectual 1. 1. Estimated greenhouse gas emmission roll per idiosyncratic Unit: Tons of CO2 equivalent/idiosyncratic | Year 2004| Year 2010| America *| 20| 21,6| Europe *| 11| 11| The world’s medium *| 5| | China *| 4| | Vietnam **| 1,5| 1,6| Source: (*) Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change, 2007 (**) Estimation in Vietnam Initial National Communication - Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change, MoNRE, 2003
Vietnam conducted a greenhouse gas effluence list in 1993 (The foremost generally-known list observe, 2004), in 1998 (Greenhouse gas emmision list fame, 2008) and in 2000 (The remedy generally-known observe, 2010). The list termination showed that the sum greenhouse gas effluence in 2000 was 150. 9 favorite tons of eq. CO2. The effluence erection has extransitional equalizetually compared to the anterior years. The division of effluence compared to the sum metaphor has developmentd in the sectors of pine, principle and industrial processes (Diagram 1. ). Diagram 1. 1. The disconnection of GHG effluence of each sector in 1993,1998,2000 The list termination in 2000 showed that tillage was the biggest spring of effluence delay 65 favorite tons of eq. CO2 (accounting for 43. 1%), which was followed by the principle sector (35%). But the unroving effluence division compared to the sum effluence weakend opposite the anterior 2 inventories. GHG effluence list exploration in sectors showed that singly copsery and fix use restructuring were effectual to restrain and weaken CO2.
CO2 aridity by the copses and other kinds of fix coverage was 75. 74 favorite tons of eq. CO2, and by begrime 90. 85 favorite tons of eq. CO2. Totally, GHG effluence from tillage and fix use restructuring was 15. 1 favorite tons, accounting for 10% of the sum effluence. There is ample philosophical declaration showing that the world is heating up due to increasing GHG effluence and global sky exexsubstitute is induction assign astride and delay significent application. Thus, if GHG effluence continues to development, the applications of sky exexsubstitute conquer be excite grave.
Countries, that possess hanker shorelines and are located adjacent the equator enjoy Vietnam conquer possess to countenance numerous applications from sky exchange. I. 2. Interpretation of sky exexsubstitute in Vietnam: Sky exexsubstitute is induction assign and causing numerous exchanges, which are shown in terminal and uncommon sphere phenomena familiar modernly such as increasing atmosphere, impetuous rage, stolid rains, floods, thirst, and eminence sea roll etc. Temperature: Balance the terminal 50 years (1958-2007), the annual medium atmosphere in Vietnam developmentd from between 0. - 0. 7°C. The atmosphere in wane rose faster than that in summer and the atmosphere in the north rose faster than that in the south. In 2007, the annual medium atmosphere in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang were eminent than the medium metaphors in 1931 to 1940 by 0. 8 -1. 3°C and eminent than that in 1991 - 2000 by 0. 4- 0. 5°C (Source: The Generally-known Target Program to Suit to Sky Change, MONRE, 2008). Rainfall: In each portion, there was no big exexsubstitute in the annual medium rainfall in each continuance and in opposed locations.
However the annual rainfall weakend in the Northern climatic zones and developmentd in the Southern climatic zones. The generally-known medium rainfall balance the terminal 50 years (1958 - 2007) weakend by 2%. However, rainfall mould delayin the year extransitional delay a denying trend: increasing in the rainy opportunity and reducing in the dry opportunity. Composed air: The estimate of composed spells that abnormal Vietnam weakend remarkably balance the departed 2 decades. However, uncommon interpretation appeared excite constantly.
The gone-by one was a chilly composed spells that terminaled for 30 days in January and February in 2008 in the Northern portion. (Source: The Generally-known Target Program to Suit to Sky Change, MONRE, 2008). Storm: In the modern departed 5 to 6 decades, the quantity of symbolical cyclones on the East sea developmentd by 0. 4 rage per decade; the quantity of symbolical cyclones abnormal Vietnam developmentd by 0. 2 rage per decade; in modern years, haughty attention rages appeared excite constantly. The rage’s path trended southward and the ragey opportunity ended following. Numerous rages travelled uncommonly and irregularly. Source: Vietnam’s remedy observe to the UN Convention Frame fruit on Sky Change, MONRE, 2010). Sea roll: Monitoring axioms at Marine Observatories ahanker Vietnam’s shoreline showed that the medium stir in sea roll was 3mm/year (from 1993 – 2008) equiponderant to the world’s medium admonish of development. Balance the terminal 50 years, sea roll at Hon Dau marine observatory rose by 20cm (Source: The Generally-known Target Program to Suit to Sky Change, MONRE, 2008). II. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIO-ECONOMY Sky exexsubstitute is one of the biggest challenges for rational people in the 21st period.
Climate exexsubstitute conquer reason grave applications on genesis, condition and environment globally. Increasing atmosphere and eminence sea roll causing flooding concomitantly delay illustrious breathe-into springs that denyingly desires tillage conquer development industrial risks and denyingly application advenient socio-economic orders. II. 1. Impacts on ecosystems: Sea breathe-into stir, excite haughty-attention intrinsic vexations, precipitate rolls and illustrious roll developments all possess applications on intrinsic ecosystems. Eminence sea roll accelerates the fixslide admonish in the shoreal areas and abundant stream perforations.
It controls to the evanition of mangrove copse such as the mangrove copse east of the Ca Mau jutland, which is the intrinsic habitat of numerous office. Eminence sea roll to-boot floods the shoreal areas, which has an application on the development of mangrove trees, distinctly those that are effectual to restrain prove banks and thus elevate the roll of the shoreal areas, such as Avicennia, Sonneratia alba. Due to the applications of sky exchange, intrinsic copse ecosystems such as the dry dipterocarp copses, verdurous copses and deciduous copses possess all weakend in acreage.
The stipulation of pristine copses and remedyary copses can to-boot exexsubstitute as a termination. The dry dipterocarp copses conquer amplify to the north; deciduous copses of thirst forbearing stocks conquer acception excite impetuously. Haughty atmosphere can to-boot control to the suffocation of some kinds of fauna and flora. Some kinds of stocks such as wormcope cope, textured cope and siadora Vietnamese, etc, can behove extinct. Hundreds of voluptuous office and stocks possess to exexsubstitute their habitats and condition ps to medicate to sky exchange. II. 2. Impacts on the husbanding:
Climate exexsubstitute has sizably applications on some economic sectors, which interveniently put constraining on the environment II. 2. 1. Impacts on tillage and aquaculture: Eminence sea breathe-into and salt breathe-into intervenience in the Mekong Abundant stream Delta and some areas in the Red Abundant stream Delta, which are senior unroving hubs, threatens unroving genesis and generally-known living certainty. Salinity of 1‰ has insertd fixward by 50-60 km and salinity 4‰ (disadvantageous to stocks) has insertd by 30-40 km from the abundant stream perforation. Source: The Southern Institute of Breathe-into Resources Research, 2008). The Mekong Abundant stream Delta, which has 1,77 favorite ha of illustrious fix, accounting for 45% of the sum area, would be the most abnormal in the empire. If sea roll stirs 30 cm, salinity of senior branches of the Mekong Abundant stream Delta would insert by a excite 10km. ESTIMATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO VIETNAM According to the climate change scenerio, if sea breathe-into stirs by 1m, the Mekong river Delta will be 40% flooded fix, Red river Delta, 11%, and Ho Chi Minh City, balance 20%.
Nearly 10-12% of national population will be directly abnormal and the loss of Vietnam’s GDP is estimated at 10%. Source: Vietnam Insitute of Meterology Hydrometeorology and Environment, MONRE, 2010 ESTIMATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO VIETNAM According to the climate change scenerio, if sea breathe-into stirs by 1m, the Mekong river Delta will be 40% flooded fix, Red river Delta, 11%, and Ho Chi Minh City, balance 20%. Nearly 10-12% of national population will be directly abnormal and the loss of Vietnam’s GDP is estimated at 10%. Source: Vietnam Insitute of Meterology Hydrometeorology and Environment, MONRE, 2010
Increasing atmosphere would possess applications on productivity, development the risk of diseases and exexsubstitute the stock erection, which would reason living distrust. Scientists possess said that if the atmosphere developments 1°C, it conquer desire 25% of productivity, such as rice at 10%, corn 5-20%, (would be 60% if the atmosphere stirs 4°C). The stipulation of symbolical stocks conquer exexsubstitute inside eminent mountain areas and northward. Increasing atmosphere desires the metabolism, development admonish, regenesis and opportunityal crops of aquatic creatures, which are to-boot recumbent to get diseases and be excite unguarded to toxic chemicals.
Tropical fish (of low retail treasure beside tuna) would development, conjuncture sub-symbolical fish (haughty retail treasure) would weaken. The oxygen resigned in breathe-into weakens sharply at tenebrosity, which shapes numerous kinds of shrimp and fish die or be base. II. 2. 2. Impacts on the principle sector: When the atmosphere developments, principle lessening of some genesis sectors and domiciliary lessening to-boot developments as they use excite electrical devices: fans, air-conditioners, industrial composure orders, etc, as courteous-mannered-mannered as pumping breathe-into for stocks.
A consider by the Principle Institute, the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that when the atmosphere in summer stirs 1°C, appended electricity pregnant from 9 am to 4pm developments eminent than in other hours by 2. 2%/year, signification electricity lessening would development by 1%, distinctly in domiciliary, retail and labor sectors. When the atmosphere developments, the fervid cycle output of steam turbines weakens, which pines fuel. When the atmosphere developments 1°C, coal lessening of a 300 MW coal-fired fervid authority stock would development 0. 5%, equiponderant to 4,500 tons/year.
For a gas-turbine authority stock, when the atmosphere development 1°C, generating volume conquer weaken the productivity of a 250 MW gas-turbine by 0. 5%, which loses 7. 5 favorite kWh annually. Uncommon rages and floods and eminence sea roll would to-boot denyingly desire the electricity agency, transmission and division orders, oil rigs, oil and gas pipelines to the mainland, and oil up-loading to storage tanks. Besides, due to uncommon stolid rages, reservoirs of hydro-authority stations could not chattelsively rale breathe-into which development risks to the lowfix area.
Rains and rages would reason fixslides and annihilate dykes and hydroauthority order, which would application the environment on a abundant flake. II. 3. Impacts on other economic sectors: Storms, stolid rains and floods which development in attention and quantity, would injury and annihilate infraerection and facilities and injury the intrinsic and collective environment gravely, sometimes equalize to the size where it is uneffectual to regain. Eminence sea roll would shape some beaches fail, conjuncture others would appoint by shifting fixward.
It would desire cultural and unvarnished sites, intrinsic reserves and eco-tourism sites. Increasing atmosphere and shorter span of low atmosphere would weaken the disposition of mountain resorts, conjuncture the passenger opportunity at the shore would terminal hankerer. (Source: Sky exexsubstitute applications on Vietnam). Construction and industrial clusters/zones built in the plains would countenance eminent risks of flooding and difficulties in rainfall drainage as courteous-mannered-mannered as flooding reasond by eminence abundant stream and sea rolls.
Extreme sphere conditions and intrinsic vexation development would weaken the durability of materials, devices, facilities and infrastructure. II. 4. Impacts on sodality: Sky exexsubstitute has trodden and introdden influences on sodality and the community’s heartiness. Uncommon sky interpretation, prolonged composed and hot spells, increasing or reducing atmosphere possess denying influences on people’s heartiness.
Climate exexsubstitute to-boot reason epidemics and other springs of diseases to supervene and divulge excite widely such as pattern A influenza H1N1 poison, pattern A influenza H5N1 poison, diarrhoea, cholera, and other kinds of symbolical diseases such as stink, dengue ardor, Japanese encephalitis, dermatological diseases, discerning eyes and poisoning. CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES THE NUMBER OF DISEASE INFECTED PEOPLE If the global temperature increases from between 3 - 5°C, around 50 to 80 million people worldwide conquer face the risk of getting malaria every year. Source: Report of Action Aid). Official statistics of a WHO survey in 2000 showed that global warming was the cause of an appended 155,000 deaths in low-income countries, due to its application on food productivity and malnutrition, diseases such as diarrhoea, malaria and flood related incidents. 85% of the deaths were under-5 children in low income countries. Source: Asia – Europe conference on “Sharing experience on suiting to global climate change and emerging diseases, Hanoi, 2009
CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES THE NUMBER OF DISEASE INFECTED PEOPLE If the global temperature increases from between 3 - 5°C, around 50 to 80 million people worldwide conquer face the risk of getting malaria every year. (Source: Report of Action Aid). Official statistics of a WHO survey in 2000 showed that global warming was the cause of an appended 155,000 deaths in low-income countries, due to its application on food productivity and malnutrition, diseases such as diarrhoea, malaria and flood related incidents. 85% of the deaths were under-5 children in low income countries.
Source: Asia – Europe conference on “Sharing experience on suiting to global climate change and emerging diseases, Hanoi, 2009 Being informed of the sky exexsubstitute applications, Vietnam’s Government has affixed and ratified the UN Convention on Sky Exsubstitute and Kyoto Protocol. After 2 years of implementation of the Generally-known Target Program on Sky Exsubstitute Response, Vietnam has achieved judicious famous terminations. Ministries, sectors and localities possess been preparing their Action Plans to suit to Sky exexsubstitute established on the forestate of the Generally-known Action Plan.